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Business / Energy

Oil posts weekly loss as geopolitical risk premium recedes

Published: 05 Nov 2023 - 09:06 am | Last Updated: 05 Nov 2023 - 09:07 am
A large liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier and a floating crane anchor in the harbour near Samsung Heavy Industries in Geoje island, South Korea.

A large liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier and a floating crane anchor in the harbour near Samsung Heavy Industries in Geoje island, South Korea.

The Peninsula

Oil prices settled more than 2% lower on Friday as supply concerns driven by Middle East tensions eased, while jobs data raised expectations the US Federal Reserve could be done hiking interest rates in the biggest oil consuming economy. Brent crude futures were down $1.92 to $84.89 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.95 to $80.51 a barrel.

Both benchmarks closed more than 6% down on the week.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, speaking for the first time since the Israel-Hamas war erupted, warned on Friday that a wider conflict in the Middle East was possible but did not commit to opening another front on Israel’s border with Lebanon.

The market is taking this conflict in its stride, as it looks to be neither a significant demand or supply disruption event.

US job growth slowed more than expected in October, official data showed, while wage inflation cooled, pointing to an easing in labor market conditions.

The data bolstered the view that the Federal Reserve need not raise interest rates
further.

The Fed held interest rates steady this week, while the Bank of England kept rates at a 15-year peak, supporting oil prices as some risk appetite returned to markets.

Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell this week but remained at a near nine-month high as geopolitical risks raised market concerns despite full inventories and a mild start to winter.

The average LNG price for December delivery into north-east Asia fell 4.2% to $17 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), its highest level since mid-February, industry sources estimated.

As fears of war in the Middle East causing supply disruption slowly begins to wane, attention once again is drawn to the approaching tank top storage levels.

North Asia is experiencing a very warm winter onset. This trajectory might be maintained until heating demand is sufficient enough to bring the utilities in, which likely won’t be until the first quarter of 2024.

In Europe, market fundamentals remain comfortable, with storage nearly full and cargoes building up offshore, but prices are holding onto a risk premium due to the conflict in the Middle East and as a long, cold winter could still strain global supplies.

US natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday with seasonally colder weather coming in mid-November and as the amount of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas export plants rose to $3.52 per mmBtu, near-record highs.