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Business / Energy

Oil prices fall, weekly 7% drop on China demand woes

Published: 20 Oct 2024 - 09:13 am | Last Updated: 20 Oct 2024 - 09:15 am
An aerial view of oil tankers moored at an oil storage terminal in Taicang, China.

An aerial view of oil tankers moored at an oil storage terminal in Taicang, China.

The Peninsula

Doha, Qatar: Oil futures fell on Friday, declining more than 7% on the week after data showed China’s economic growth slowed and investors digested a mixed Middle East outlook. Brent crude futures fell $1.39, or 1.87%, to $73.06 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $69.22 a barrel, down $1.45 or 2.05%.

Brent closed more than 7% lower last week, while WTI lost around 8%, marking their biggest weekly declines since Sept. 2, when OPEC and the International Energy Agency cut their forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, noted Al-Attiyah Foundation in its Weekly Energy Market Review.

 In China, the world’s top oil importer, the economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, though September consumption and industrial output beat forecasts. China’s refinery output declined for the sixth straight month as thin refining margins and weak fuel consumption curbed processing.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden said on Friday there was an opportunity to deal with Israel and Iran in a way that potentially ends their conflict in the Middle East for a while. However, after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Lebanon’s Hezbollah said on Friday it was moving to a new and escalating phase as it battles Israeli troops. 

This dashed hopes earlier on Friday that Sinwar’s death would speed up an end to escalating war in the Middle East.

Asian spot LNG gained for the first time since end-August last week, supported by emerging spot demand across the region. The average LNG price for December delivery into north-east Asia rose to $13.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources estimated, its first weekly gain in six weeks. Despite the spot market activity, overall market sentiment has not changed dramatically, as European gas storage levels remain above 95%, reducing competition with Asia for cargo procurement.

Northeast Asian players are likely to see a slow start to the heating season as temperatures remain warmer than normal in the period leading up to the start of winter, while healthy storage levels could mute spot purchases from the region.

In Europe, high storage and steady output could see prices fall back significantly over winter in the event of mild weather like that of the last two years, analyst said. In addition, US supply is also improving with Cove Point returning from planned maintenance and Hurricane Milton not affecting LNG production. In the US, natural gas futures fell about 4% to a five-week low on Friday with forecasts for mild weather expected to keep heating demand low through early November. Front-month gas futures settled at $2.26 per million mmBtu. For the week, the contract was down about 14%, its biggest weekly drop since early February.