Doha: The devastating earthquake that struck Turkiye and Syria recently reminded us the natural disasters that the world has witnessed in the recent period, including the worst flood in Pakistan in 30 years, the most severe drought in Iraq in 9 decades, in addition to Hurricane Ian, which struck the southeastern United States, last September, and it is a reminder of the high cost of these disasters to global economies.
On the morning of Feb. 6, large parts of Turkiye and Syria, were hit by the earthquake at an estimated area of 500 kilometers by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leaving tens of thousands of dead and heavy losses, whose value is likely to range between approximately USD 45-84bn, especially since the Turkish President indicated in previous statements that the number of affected people may reach 20 million, after thousands of buildings, including homes, hospitals, and other infrastructure, were severely damaged, on the Turkish side alone.
Qatar News Agency (QNA) asked a question about Turkiye’s options and scenarios for dealing with the disaster to the economist, Dr. Abdullah Al Khater, where he confirmed that it is too early to estimate the size of the financial losses, especially since the country is still preoccupied with dealing with the humanitarian aspect, and its focus is on rescue operations, in search of survivors under the rubble of collapsed and damaged buildings, which was estimated by the Turkish Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, Murat Kurum, in the affected states, at 12 thousand and 141 buildings.
He added that there is an infrastructure that was completely destroyed by the earthquake, and this constitutes a great opportunity for the growth of the Turkish economy, as all sectors will participate in the reconstruction operations, and the Turkish sectors will accustom us to quickly adapting to various circumstances and events.
Al-Khater expects that the earthquake will contribute to stimulating the Turkish business environment, accompanied by an increase in demand for construction materials, machinery, and others, especially as we will witness new cities that will enable the Turkish economy to emerge from the repercussions of the disaster stronger, and contribute to opening new horizons, to continue its growth processes in the future.
He pointed out that the earthquake is also a strong factor for the growth of the entire region, which will also witness major reconstruction operations in Syria, Iraq and Turkiye, and Turkish companies will have an important role in that locally and regionally, if they succeed in attracting Chinese investments.
For his part, Ghazi Masrli, head of foreign relations at the Independent Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (MUSIAD) in Turkiye, told Qatar News Agency (QNA) that the earthquake hit 11 important states, which are considered among the industrial states and sensitive areas in the country, including, for example, the city of Gaziantep, which is one of the largest Turkish cities, and the fifth industrial city in the country.
He added that these states are distinguished by their strong commercial relations with the Arab countries, especially Iraq and the countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab Gulf States, with a population of approximately 13 million and 400 thousand people, that is, 15 percent of the total population of Turkiye, and contributes to a total of 10 percent of the gross product.
He pointed out that the initial losses are human, as many people lost their lives, including engineers, doctors, and manpower, which we desperately need today, and that the expectations of economists and officials indicate that the earthquake will reduce economic growth by two percentage points this year, after expectations had indicated before its occurrence a growth of 5.5 percent in 2023.
He noted the Arab support for Turkiye, as the Arab countries rushed to organize support campaigns to help the Turkish people get out of their ordeal, foremost among them is the State of Qatar, which thankfully took the initiative, from the very first moment, “leadership, government and people” to stand by Turkiye.
As for the financial analyst, Walid Al-Fuqaha, he confirmed to QNA that the tourism sector was weakly affected by the repercussions of the earthquake in the affected areas, as it is not important to the Turkish sector, and its participation does not exceed 10 percent. As for the industrial and agricultural levels, these regions play a prominent role, especially the city of Gaziantep, as aftershocks continue to harm production processes there, which may cause temporary damage to the Turkish economy. He expected that the Turkish losses would constitute 5.5 percent of the total domestic results, which is equivalent to USD 45bn, out of its budget of USD 819bn.
Al-Fuqaha added that the Turkish renaissance has accustomed us to surprises, and over the past 20 years, it has achieved an unprecedented quantum leap in the number of local factories.
