By Mohamed Osman
DOHA: A foreign policy analyst at the coveted Brookings Doha Centre sees no possibility of open hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran despite deep mistrust and lack of communication between the two Middle Eastern giants.
“There is a lack of political will on the part of both, Riyadh and Tehran, to go to war,” says Ibrahim Fraihat (pictured).
A senior foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Doha Centre, Fraihat was giving a lecture on the issue of the much-talked-about bitterness in the relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran as part of the “American Chamber Qatar Distinguished Speaker Series January 2016” here yesterday.
There is, though, an unprecedented level of polarisation as for Saudi Arabia and Iran are concerned, he added.
The US has the leverage, he said, to impact the crisis as a strong ally of the Saudis and a security provider in the region, said Fraihat.
Tracing the history of the crisis between the two countries, he said it goes back to 2003 when the US invaded Iraq and the crisis has since then passed through several stages.
The invasion of 2003 changed the order and the scenario in the region with the social balance gone in Iraq as the US was supporting the sectarian government in Baghdad, marginalising the Sunnis, said Fraihat.
Fraihat was speaking on the “Diplomatic Crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran: Causes, Prospects and what role for the US”.
With the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime the balance of power in the region significantly shifted and prompted Iran to interfere in Iraq’s internal affairs and in other countries like Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
The escalation of tension continued until 2011 when Arab Spring started to witness proxy wars in different places because Saudi Arabia and Iran supported different groups in countries in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Friahat pointed out that after four years of proxy wars, in 2015, “we started to see a new form of conflict emerging in the third phase of this crisis between the two countries, where the two primary powers entered in direct confrontation”.
Saudi Arabia got directly involved in the war against one of Iran’s allies in Yemen, the Houthis, through the ‘Operation Decisive Storm’ and Iran was already involved heavily in the war in Syria. “What we are seeing today is the symptoms of the direct confrontation, such as the attack on the Saudi diplomatic mission in Iran after the execution of Nimr Al Nimr, which was only a trigger to a very tense situation between the two countries, which finally led to end of ties.
No war is expected between the two counties in 2016, but there are very scary symptoms he said. Since 2003 the escalation of tension has continued until today without de-escalation but there are efforts going on to calm the tension. None of the two countries or other regional or international powers are willing or have interest in a war between the two countries because everyone will be affected by the direct conflict, said Fraihat.
However, wars happen either by political decision such as George W Bush’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003. Or sometimes war-related decisions come from the bottom-up where things on the ground dictate a war or confrontation giving vivid examples like the Iranian plane prevented from landing in Sana’a by two Saudi war planes, and Iranian ship denied entry at Hudaida port. Fraihat stressed that “even if the Iranian plane hit accidentally we can imagine how this will be reported to Tehran and the public pressure on the leadership to react”.
Speaking about the role of the US in the crisis, Fraihat pointed out that despite the symptoms of direct conflict and the deep mistrust between the parties, the US has the leverage to impact the crisis as a strong ally of Saudi Arabia and the security provider in the region.
Iran after the nuclear deal is seeking acceptance in the international community and looking for foreign investments, therefore there is need for some sort of crisis management, he said. Fraihat emphasised that to de-escalate tension and solve the crisis there is the need for political will, and a kind of crisis management system at official and experts levels, in addition to activating the role of mediation by several countries like Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan and Germany. Furthermore, there is the need for a new narrative of the crisis in which academics and media can play a pivotal role along with the role of civil society and galvanizing the role of Arab Shias to de-escalation the tension.
The Peninsula
