Akhtar Raja
Let me start with a working assumption. The West will not help Sudan for the right reasons. I will also make general points. Russia may well wish to build a naval port in Sudan and the West may want the return of Sudanese civilian rule before establishing trade and other links. However, such desires are the product of self-interest (whether or not legitimate). Sudan’s welfare is not the paramount factor or a factor at all.
The Sudanese are warm hearts, gentle characters, harmonious and instinctively embracing personalities. Muslim power states must organise themselves and co-opt fellow Muslim countries to help restore peace and security in their brother state, Sudan. Only they can.
On 9 February 2023 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Sudan to strengthen economic ties. The trip was part of a wider tour of Africa, unsurprisingly, to expand influence given sanctions against Russia resulting from the war in Ukraine.
Sudan also hosted envoys from the United States, United Kingdom and France. They favour the formation of a new democratic civilian government.
Discussions to establish a Russian naval base in the strategic Port of Sudan commenced sometime in 2019 before former President Omar al-Bashir was toppled. The head of the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, visited Russia the day before the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and discussed hosting a Russian military base.
During Lavrov’s recent visit, it is claimed that the terms of an agreement were finalised allowing for the presence of Russian troops and four ships which could be nuclear-powered. The agreement is for 25 years and can be extended. Russian presence would complement their naval facility in Tartus, Syria.
The location of the naval base on the Red Sea coast is a strategic region where Gulf countries and Turkiye compete for influence. It is reported that Russia’s Wagner Group has been involved in gold mining and other activities in Sudan. Sudan’s foreign ministry has previously denied the presence of Wagner. Sudan’s gold reserves are significant in the context of internationalising an alternative currency to the petrodollar.
The raging fighting between Sudan’s military ruler, General Abdel Fattah al- Burhan and Dagalo is a complicated power struggle.
RSF was supported and trained by the Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar shortly before the outbreak on 15 April in Sudan. Dagalo and Haftar’s relationship commenced before Omar al-Bashir fell. Dagalo sent mercenaries to support Haftar in Libya. Last year a federal US judge found Haftar liable for war crimes against several Libyan families who accused him of extrajudicial killings and torture.
The CIA’s fingerprints are all over Haftar. In May 1991, the New York Times reported that the Reagan administration funded training Haftar and his troops in sabotage and guerrilla warfare in Chad to bring about the overthrow of Gaddafi. The Chadian government fell in 1990. Haftar subsequently participated in the uprising against Colonel Qaddafi which began in 2011 by leading the ground forces of the National Transitional Council. Haftar’s declared sponsors were Russia and some Arab states. Both Russia and the U.S have an interest in fiercely vying for close relations with whoever ultimately takes control of Sudan. For them, Sudan is just another pawn on the board in the strategic game of proxy wars and a target for economic plundering. Where do Sudan’s interests lie? First and foremost, they lay in their own sovereignty and peace and security for the Sudanese. Secondly, Sudan’s interests ought to coincide with the collective and reciprocal supportive and protective role and interests of Muslim states.
There is sufficient talent and capacity among Muslims states to come to Sudan’s aid. They must do so.
Qatar has led some of the most difficult mediations recently, including in the interests of Afghanistan.
Qatar of course remained a steadfast and intelligent actor when it was isolated. It swiftly reaped the fruits of its mature conduct and now, quite rightly, relationships are being restored. Egypt, amongst others, has been brought into the fold.
Turkiye has managed a complicated foreign policy given its geographically strategic position. Recently, it brokered the Ukraine and Russia grain agreement. It has a history of humanitarian diplomacy which has included Syrian refugee resettlement, and aid for drought-ravaged Somalia and Rohingya refugees. Turkiye is committed to development in Afghanistan.
Any overview would be remiss without reference to Oman. It has a history of being the regional mediator and bridge builder between countries. Recently it hosted discussions between Saudi Arabia and Iran concerning their involvement in Yemen and the Arabia Gulf. Oman has helped revisit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with a view to lifting sanctions against Iran. Oman is key to the reintegration of Syria into the Arab world. Oman has facilitated prisoner swaps (and release), peace talks in Yemen and the release of hostages in Syria.
His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik has ensured Oman’s reputation for diplomacy, and its role as an interlocutor in complex conflicts has continued and thrived with an impressive record of neutrality and success.
China has thrown its hat in the ring to encourage the de-escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. Undoubtedly it has its own interests to guard, namely, the success of the Belt and Road Initiative. However, so far, its interests align with Muslim states which need to reduce dependence on the United States and the West more generally. Thankfully, the latter are in decline thereby opening the door for Muslim, Chinese and other civilisations to progress and for a new world order to emerge. Recently, the Chinese president visited Saudi Arabia and held the Chinese-Saudi, Chinese-Gulf, and Chinese-Arab summits.
Beijing has intervened to encourage a resumption of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Efforts to rekindle good relations have extended to ties with Ankara and Damascus. UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait have continued the trend of reconciliation.
Different Muslim states have given support for varying reasons, from time to time, to Haftar. Burhan and Dagalo have diverging personal interests. Muslim countries, therefore, have a degree of leverage to help freeze acrimony, create a moratorium, and hold back the warring figures. Putting it bluntly, they are likely to need an exit route and incentives to cease harm and destruction. In such circumstances negotiations are possible. China should play a catalytic role alongside Muslim states during back-channel diplomacy. In parallel, a peacekeeping mission must be deployed to protect civilians. Consent can be procured with good diplomacy and a range of assurances. The Chinese can help balance competing interests, control animosities and overcome differences of opinion – as it is actively doing right now.
Allowing one figure sole control or the creation of a power vacuum in Sudan is dangerous. The exodus of Sudanese must cease. Those that have left must be able to return home safely. All Sudanese need to be guaranteed security, food, medical treatment, and protection of their properties and businesses. With time, conditions must be created to allow the Sudanese to chaperone their own interim and elected civilian governments.
A peacekeeping mission can involve a deployment by the Pakistani army supported by, perhaps, a Turkish force and representation from the armed forces of other Muslim countries that wish to participate.
The fundamental role of the Pakistani Armed Forces in matters of security and protection retains integrity and vast experience. Although, constitutional and internal institutional reforms are necessary in due course.
Pakistan desperately needs support given its dire economic and political conditions. There is an energy crisis too. The heavy costs of a deployment can be met by some states providing funds and aid directly to the neglected layers of society such as flood victims, the sick, and the impoverished. Such payment and resources need to be micromanaged by the donors to ensure they reach the intended recipients. In this way, unscrupulous politicians and institutions will be bypassed. The state will also benefit from a lesson on how to nurture good governance. Some lateral thinking is required for this to work. Sudan’s unfolding story provides an opportunity for the Muslim bloc to develop itself into a cohesive force. The world is changing. Muslim nations need to think about getting ahead of the curve. Further and greater challenges lie ahead. In the meantime, therefore, let’s give our brother state a shoulder to lean on until it is restored into a fully functioning and integrated state.
Akhtar Raja, is a British lawyer based in London and Principal of Quist Solicitors.
