Dr. Shaher Zakaria
The American presidential elections are finally concluding on Tuesday with both candidates Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris looking to make the White House their next home address through winning 270 electoral votes out of 538. This historical and at times violent elections cycle witnessed three assassination attempts on Trump and an unprecedented move by President Biden as he stepped down from seeking reelection.
Seven swing states will determine the outcome of the presidential elections; Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Each candidate will look to win a combination of these states if not win them all, although that remains highly unlikely though still possible. Polls showed Trump maintains a slight lead over Harris in several swing states that will determine the outcome of the elections such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
While Harris leads in Michigan and both candidates are tied in Wisconsin. Both candidate’s lead is well within the margins of error. Surprisingly another poll showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa. Of course, polls have been wrong in the past mainly during the 2016 presidential elections, where all polls showed Hillary Clinton winning the White House, however Trump pulled the shocking upset. Pennsylvania remains the prize of the seven swing states, with 19 electoral college votes awarded to the winner.
While most eyes are focused on the presidential elections, the House and Senate elections will be on the same day and might have a huge impact on who gets to control the government. Each party would like to win the White House and Congress avoiding a divided government although that might be difficult given the current entrenched political and economic tribal divide in the country. Each candidate spoke about their strong points. Harris spoke about democracy, abortion, rule of law, and flopped on many issues including the war on Gaza depending on where you lived in the country. Her messaging regarding the war on Gaza was pro-Palestinian in Michigan where most Arab Americans live, however it was pro-Israeli if you lived somewhere else in America. Immigration has always been her weakest point and Trump took full advantage of that. President Biden did no favors to his vice president as he called Trump supporters ‘garbage’ echoing Hillary Clinton’s ‘basket of deplorables’ comments about Trump’s supporters. On the other hand, many democrats including Harris compared Trump to Hitler and his supporters to Nazis fascists. This came across a desperate narrative that further adds to the divide of the country.
Trump’s strong points are illegal immigration, ending crime, trade, and the economy. Even though unemployment stands at 4.1%, inflation has played a huge role on the American people as it serves as a constant reminder of the dire state they are in financially and adds to their economic woes. Trump has also vowed to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Trump’s weakest points are his stands on being anti-abortion and with woman voters. Trump has followed a strategy of speaking directly to America’s young men through appearances on right-leaning, male dominated online shows and podcasts. He has largely avoided podcasts, YouTube channels, and daytime TV shows fitted toward female audiences. If he loses, this strategy might be one of the main reasons. The latest ABC News/lespos national poll showed Trump trailing Harris among likely female voters by 14-points – a margin that far outpaces his 6-point lead among men. Adding to Trump’s challenges is a gender gap in early voting. Women have outpaced men in the seven most contested battleground states. However, as illuded to, Trump has doubled down and focused on men dominated shows. This is straight out of Trump’s playbook that he has used for most of his life. It dates back to1973 when the Justice Department accused Trump of violating the Fair Housing Act in 39 of his properties.
The government claimed that Trump’s corporation quoted different rental terms and conditions and made false “no vacancy” statements to African Americans for apartments it managed in Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island. Representing Trump was American Lawyer and Prosecutor Roy Cohn who was also Trump’s mentor. Trump settled the charges out of court in 1975 and never admitted guilt. However, Roy Cohen taught Trump five important life lessons that Trump still carries to this day. First to do anything to win, second to fight for recognition, third to fight until the end, fourth that people want to be sold a fantasy, and finally being glamorous or appearing to be glamorous is the greatest distraction. If one were to look at Trumps political career since 2016, he has used all five things whether it be fighting his political opponents, his court cases, or doing anything to claim falsely that he won the 2020 elections and never admitting defeat. Trump sold the American people his glamorous lifestyle as a way of distracting them from him filing for bankruptcy several times. He sold the American people a fantasy as he leased his name to be used on towers appearing to be a business savvy guy through his show ‘The Apprentice’ which aired for 15 years.
Whoever the winner is of one of the most consequential elections in American history it will have huge ramifications on the world politically, economically, and environmentally, however the world must embrace itself as we might not know the winner of the elections until the weekend. Prediction: Trump wins the White House.
Dr. Shaher Zakaria is Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Lusail University – Qatar
Dr. Shaher Zakaria is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Lusail University – Doha, Qatar.
