Views /Opinion

Current and future calculations

Humanity goes through many critical situations, and the decisions made in these situations are considered vital in determining its destiny, especially when these decisions are subject only to present desirable outcomes rather than future ones.

In fact, many of present uncalculated decisions about desired results are often driven by maintaining pride, fame, name and weight, rather than longer run genuine benefits and interests. This may appear in taking actions and adopting positions that later go against the future realization of benefits and interests, if not causing disasters. 

Some examples. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein stiffed in his stance during his 1990 invasion of Kuwait. He did not want to end it after many calls. He wanted quick results: annex Kuwait, enforce his own discipline and hegemony, and save his pride. He deemed that any pressure on him would be translated as humiliation, so he did not listen to the advice of many to withdraw from Kuwait and keep his nation and the region safe. By holding on to his stance, heavy losses were incurred: he lost everything, his great economy collapsed, his nation was torn apart, and the whole region suffered.

Likewise the Americans. They decided to invade Afghanistan right after the incident of 9/11, aiming to achieve immediate results that stemmed from preserving their pride and their name as a superpower capable of taking revenge and induce a victory. In fact, their early narrow calculation of the current benefits under the actions taken made them not accurately estimate the huge losses generated after 20 years in Afghanistan. The results were seen in the huge losses of lives of thousands of Americans and tens of thousands of Afghans. After all that, the country had been left to the dominant powers to rule and take care of Afghanistan.

When some GCC countries boycotted/blockaded Qatar, they also wanted quick results: Qatar must abide by the boycotting countries’ opinion on how they want to shape the fate of the GCC countries. These boycotting countries set 13 conditions that Qatar must meet if it wants to lift the boycott. Qatar has linked its present response to long-term benefits. Qatar invested much in its patience, avoided similar measures as adopted by boycotting countries against it, called for negotiations, and bypassed the blockade with alternative supplies, routes, and added infrastructure. The adopted actions of Qatar inherited it with double long-term benefits: (1) vanishing of boycott, (2) enhancement of sustainable economic and security infrastructure. 

During the time of the Prophet Muhammad (Peace and Blessing of Allah Be Upon Him), it happened that the Prophet had to decide to accept a situation where he had to sign the truce of al-Hudaybiyah agreement with Quraish. Many of his companions showed their dissatisfaction, and some even reacted that the Prophet should not sign. However, the Prophet wanted to keep his companions safe and avoid spilling blood in Makkah; thus tying the current situation with expected results in the future. After nearly three years, Quraish broke the agreement, prompting the Prophet to conquer Makkah and take it peacefully with a huge army.

Now, with this Russian-Ukrainian crisis, the Russians may want to invade Ukraine to achieve immediate results and maintain Russia’s pride and global recognition as a great unshaken power. If the Russians were to invade Ukraine, this could lead to great destruction of all aspects that would befall not only the Russians but also Asia, Europe and the world. In fact, the world is now on the brink of this outcome; one small spark that might be emitted at present could ignite a great conflagration, and the future of the entire world might burn.

*Readers can access contributions of the writer on his website www.al-abdulqader.com 

(The views published in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of The Peninsula)